Maybe try creating a new virtual network with a different subnet?

I had the exact same issue! I was going crazy troubleshooting this, anyway it turned out to be the firewall on my arch install. I disabled ufw and everything started working as usual. I really should enable the firewall again and check what rules are screwing it up.

I use timeshift and also do weekly clonezilla images. I’ll check ouy pika.

Im the same im daily checking for updates. However i do backup my system regularly too!