- In response to the EU’s tariffs on EV, China announced an anti-dumping probe on pork imports from the European Union. But at less than $2 billion last year, pork accounts for a tiny sliver of the trade between the EU and China, which topped $280 billion in 2023.

- So why is China going after a sector that, economically, matters so little? Politics.

- Beijing is deploying a playbook it has used in previous trade skirmishes with Europe, the US and Australia. By targeting agriculture, the soft (pork) belly of Europe, China tries to keep the conflict contained and leverages the outsized influence of Europe’s farming lobby.

- Beijing obviously hopes that EU nations would now pressure Brussels into softening the EV tariffs before they’re officially imposed July 4. However, EU nations should avoid playing into China’s hands.–

Growing up in Spain, where the farming sector is a powerhouse, the wars I lived through were named for food: the “strawberry war” with the French in 1989, the “tuna war” with the British in 1990, and the “turbot war” with the Canadians in 1995. Still, nothing prepared me for what’s shaping up to be the “ham war” with China.

On Monday, Beijing announced an anti-dumping probe on pork imports from the European Union, a first step toward tariffs. The probe came less than a week after Brussels announced it would impose duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles as high as 50%, saying they benefited from “unfair subsidisation.”

Spain is, by far, the largest pork exporter into China, whose taste for the nation’s succulent (and expensive) Iberico ham has become increasingly fashionable. The Netherlands, Denmark, France, Belgium and Germany are also significant exporters.

But at less than $2 billion last year, pork accounts for a tiny sliver of the trade between the EU and China, which topped $280 billion in 2023. So why is China going after a sector that, economically, matters so little? Politics.

Beijing is deploying a playbook it has used in previous trade skirmishes with Europe, the US and Australia. By targeting agriculture, the soft (pork) belly of Europe, China achieves two objectives: It keeps the conflict contained and leverages the outsized influence of Europe’s farming lobby.

Beijing obviously hopes that EU nations would now pressure Brussels into softening the EV tariffs before they’re officially imposed July 4. Germany was already unhappy with the duties, fearing for its own car sales in China; Spain and France, which appeared undecided, could join Berlin against Brussels.

However, EU nations can avoid playing into China’s hands. Take Spain, where pork can make headlines in news bulletins and the quality of meat is a source of national pride. Last year, Spain exported €12.2 billion in meat, including not only pork, but also beef and poultry, to every nation in the world. But during the same period, its exports of automobiles, motorbikes and car components reached nearly €54 billion. It’s clear what sector matters the most economically.

Then, consider that Spain has no rival in China when it comes to high-end pork, but Spain and China are competing in the very same segment in the car industry: small, cheap cars for the growing ranks of the world’s working and middle classes. Spain has so far focused on gasoline- and diesel-powered cars, while the Chinese are leading on electric ones. Without tariff protection, it’s unlikely that Spain would be able to switch from gasoline into electric cars, and without that switch, its car industry would slowly die.

China has used the local farmers of its trade antagonist for its own benefit before: It pressured Australia by targeting its farm exports, including barley, beef, wine and lobsters, and it tried to force the hand of the US by restricting the soybean trade. The farming lobby is particularly strong in Brussels. After all, autoworkers don’t take their cars to the center of Brussels as farmers do with their tractors when they need to protest government policy.

China also knows that its imports of European pork, particularly of low-value-added meat, is going to decline as its pig herd grows again to meet local demand, which the Europeans also know and are braced for.

European nations should play their cards carefully. China has opened a window for negotiation. Its probe into European pork exports is likely to last six months, potentially a year, leaving plenty of time for talks. In that vein, its response to Brussels isn’t the start of a trade war, but rather the beginning of prewar talks. Both sides can find a solution.

Ultimately, Europe shouldn’t trade off its multibillion-euro car industry to content its politically active farmers. Agricultural exports are important, but they are more valuable for sentimental reasons than for economic impact. Put your mind in the euro value alone, however, and cars win – by a long mile. That should be the focus in Brussels, and in Madrid, Paris, Amsterdam and Copenhagen.